Thai Baht (USD/THB) will strengthen below 35.80 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Thailand's neutral positioning during Middle East energy crisis creates safe-haven demand among ASEAN currencies

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 54% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.209.

Derived from: Multiple actor intelligence updates show ASEAN members announcing naval security measures. Game theory European Energy Security scenario shows 70% confidence bullish outcome for energy alternatives. Wartime regime creates regional flight-to-quality within Asia. Vernal Equinox + Iran Assessment Window convergence intensity 3/5 approaching. Base rate major FX pair 1%+ weekly moves: 71%.

Probability

54%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 31182d ago

Made

Mar 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.