MISSBrier 0.346

USD/THB peaked at 33.02198 on March 27, 2026, far below the 36.50 threshold. Daily highs during evidence window: Mar 27: 33.02, Mar 26: 32.99, Mar 28: 32.94, Mar 30: 33.00, Mar 31: 32.99, Apr 23: 32.41. Maximum value 33.02 < 36.50, threshold NOT met on any trading days. Thai Baht actually strengthened instead of weakening as predicted.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTHB

Thai Baht (USD/THB) will weaken past 36.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as ASEAN shipping route disruptions and tourism sector exposure to Middle East conflict create current account pressures

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.346.

Derived from: Knowledge bank shows Red Sea Houthi shipping disruptions and Live Intelligence on Strait Hormuz closures. Thailand's tourism-dependent economy faces dual exposure to regional conflict and shipping cost inflation.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 23159d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Thai Baht (USD/THB) will strengthen below 35.80 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Thailand's neutral positioning during Middle East energy crisis creates safe-haven demand among ASEAN currencies

market54%HIT

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Thai Baht (USD/THB) will weaken past 36.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as ASEAN shipping route disruptions and tourism sector exposure to Middle East conflict create current account pressures

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