MISSBrier 0.144

Data-resolved: GS moved from 1038.61 to 942.00 (-9.30%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 1080.15. Target not reached. High was 1043.84.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGS

Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $1080.15, 4% from $1038.61 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.144.

The Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle assessment (hawkish hold most likely, no stable dovish equilibrium) supports a steady-to-higher rate environment that historically benefits capital-markets-heavy banks; XLF-linked names should outperform if the Fed's September hold confirms.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$1,080.15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $894.90, 5% from $942.00 at creation)

market82%

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Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $1080.15, 4% from $1038.61 at creation)

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