HITBrier 0.032

Early-confirmed: GS, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-21 through 2026-10-05. Target: below 894.9. Target hit on: 2026-10-01. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 2, 2026

Market

SHORT correctGS

Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $894.90, 5% from $942.00 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 82% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-02. Brier score 0.032.

Risk-off regime confirmation (F&G 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold) plus Fed hawkish-hold Bayesian equilibrium pressures financials; capital-markets-exposed banks are most sensitive to a higher-for-longer surprise per the Fed Rate Cycle scenario.

Probability: 82%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 59d ago
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$894.9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $1080.15, 4% from $1038.61 at creation)

market38%MISS

GS will close at least 3% below its October 6, 2026 closing price on at least one trading day by November 5, 2026 (target below $866.66, 3% from $893.46 at creation)

market62%

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Goldman Sachs (GS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $894.90, 5% from $942.00 at creation)

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