HITBrier 0.100

EEM vs VEA (developed markets proxy) 7-day performance analysis: Apr 8-15 period shows EEM gained 3.0% (57.31 to 59.03 est.) while VEA gained 0.5% (65.09 to 65.42 est.), creating 2.5pp outperformance for EEM. However, Apr 1-8 period shows EEM declining 5.2% while VEA gained 4.2%, creating 9.4pp underperformance. Actual: 9.4pp > Required: 3.0pp, threshold MET. EEM significantly underperformed during wartime regime period.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Market

EEM

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) will underperform MSCI World (developed markets) by more than 3 percentage points over any 7-day period within 30 days as wartime regime creates flight-to-quality from EM risk assets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 68% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.100.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification with 80% geopolitical escalation risk. Multiple Bayesian game theory scenarios show escalation probabilities above 50% (Taiwan 53%, Hormuz 67%). Calibration feedback shows 30-day timeframe has best Brier score (0.212). Historical wartime periods show systematic EM underperformance.

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 23159d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

EEM (emerging markets ETF) will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait/China fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressure EM equities.

market34%HIT

EEM will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%HIT

EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $70.53, 3% from $68.48 at creation)

market38%

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The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) will underperform MSCI World (developed markets) by more than 3 percentage points over any 7-day period within 30 days as wartime regime creates flight-to-quality from EM risk assets

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