The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) will underperform MSCI World (developed markets) by more than 3 percentage points over any 7-day period within 30 days as wartime regime creates flight-to-quality from EM risk assets
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 68% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.100.
Derived from: Wartime regime classification with 80% geopolitical escalation risk. Multiple Bayesian game theory scenarios show escalation probabilities above 50% (Taiwan 53%, Hormuz 67%). Calibration feedback shows 30-day timeframe has best Brier score (0.212). Historical wartime periods show systematic EM underperformance.
- Probability
- 68%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Apr 23159d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .