EEM will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-11. Brier score 0.394.
US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-prone, bearish 60% confidence) alongside Taiwan Strait fracture risk, compounding wartime risk-off pressure on emerging market equities from the current $68.70.
- Probability
- 37%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 227d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.