HITBrier 0.394

Early-confirmed: EEM hit target below 67 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 67.00 (started at 68.70).

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEEM

EEM will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-11. Brier score 0.394.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-prone, bearish 60% confidence) alongside Taiwan Strait fracture risk, compounding wartime risk-off pressure on emerging market equities from the current $68.70.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$67

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $70.53, 3% from $68.48 at creation)

market38%

EEM (emerging markets ETF) will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait/China fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressure EM equities.

market34%HIT

EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will close below $64.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market33%

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EEM will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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