MISSBrier 0.243

Data-resolved: COST moved from 915.74 to 895.31 (-2.23%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 943.21. Target not reached. High was 921.99.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCOST

Costco (COST) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $943.21, 3% from $915.74 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.243.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed capitulation-level RSI on SPY/QQQ) typically favors defensive consumer staples rotation as capital seeks non-cyclical resilience; a cross-asset defensive play distinct from covered WMT.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$943.21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Costco (COST) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defensive consumer-staples rotation continues amid confirmed risk-off equity conditions (target above $934.42, 4% from $898.48 at creation)

market84%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Costco (COST) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $943.21, 3% from $915.74 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture