HITBrier 0.026

Data-resolved: COST, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-06. Target: above 934.42. Target hit on: 2026-10-06. Deadline close: 935.68 (2026-10-06).

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

LONG correctCOST

Costco (COST) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defensive consumer-staples rotation continues amid confirmed risk-off equity conditions (target above $934.42, 4% from $898.48 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 84% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.026.

Confirmed risk-off regime, Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ RSI capitulation without fundamental catalyst supporting defensive rotation

Probability: 84%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 610d ago
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$934.42

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Costco (COST) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $943.21, 3% from $915.74 at creation)

market49%MISS

COST will close at least 2% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 12, 2026 (target above $978.63, 2% from $959.44 at creation)

market71%HIT

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Costco (COST) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defensive consumer-staples rotation continues amid confirmed risk-off equity conditions (target above $934.42, 4% from $898.48 at creation)

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