HITBrier 0.653

Multiple sources confirm North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests within the evidence window: PBS (March 14): 'North Korea fires about 10 ballistic missiles toward sea'; Fox News (March 14): 'Kim Jong Un appears with teenage daughter at live-fire rocket test'; Euronews (March 15): 'North Korea conducts test of nuclear-capable rocket launchers'; Fine Day 102.3 (March 29): 'Kim Jong Un Witnesses Missile Engine Test'. Multiple tests occurred between March 14-29, which overlaps with the specified March 19-31 window. Actual: Multiple missile tests confirmed, Required: At least 1 test, therefore threshold met.

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Geopolitical

North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or major military demonstration between March 19-31 during the convergence window leading up to the Day of the Sun anniversary period

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 19% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.653.

Derived from: DPRK provocation scenario with 50% confidence on ICBM launch + Day of the Sun commemorative window within 14-day horizon + Mars-Saturn conjunction April 14 approaching + historical pattern of provocations during celestial convergences

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 31182d ago
Made: Mar 9

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or major military demonstration between March 19-31 during the convergence window leading up to the Day of the Sun anniversary period

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