MISSBrier 0.106

Web search found only 1 result within the evidence window (March 9 - April 8, 2026): 'Italy's Naval Industry in a Shifting Global Landscape' from March 22, 2026. This is a general industry analysis piece, not an announcement of a specific contract. No evidence found of any major European defense contractor announcing a new Middle East or Asia-Pacific contract worth over €500 million during the prediction window. Required: At least 1 such announcement. Actual: 0 announcements found.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major European defense contractor will announce new Middle East or Asia-Pacific contract worth over €500 million within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.106.

Derived from: NATO Article 5 readiness signaling and 6 of 10 game theory scenarios resolving to mixed outcomes requiring enhanced defensive positioning. Actor intelligence shows NATO enhancing ballistic missile defenses and multiple allies seeking military coordination

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Russia will announce at least one new energy partnership or bilateral agreement with a non-Western nation within 30 days as the Kremlin leverages Middle East tensions to expand influence while maintaining strategic distance from direct conflict

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At least one OPEC+ member nation will announce a production cut or extension of existing cuts within 30 days as the Saudi-US production game theory scenario favors supply tightening

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At least one major European defense contractor will announce new Middle East or Asia-Pacific contract worth over €500 million within 30 days

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