MISSBrier 0.110

Data-resolved: CAT moved from 813.94 to 808.99 (-0.61%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 773.24. Target not reached. Low was 772.86.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctCAT

Caterpillar (CAT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $773.24, 5% from $813.94 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.110.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian assessment: zero stable equilibria, Fearon bargaining failure (structural conditions favor conflict), pressuring industrial/machinery exporters with significant China revenue exposure.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$773.24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Caterpillar (CAT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $768.54, 5% from $808.99 at creation)

market72%

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Caterpillar (CAT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $773.24, 5% from $813.94 at creation)

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