Caterpillar (CAT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $768.54, 5% from $808.99 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 72% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish 60% confidence) directly threatens global industrial capex and trade-exposed heavy machinery names; complements the existing XLI ETF-level thesis with a single-stock angle.

Probability

72%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 5in 6d

Made

Sep 21

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.