Zinc futures will trade above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as infrastructure stockpiling accelerates ahead of potential supply disruptions from multiple geopolitical chokepoints

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 53% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-30. Brier score 0.281.

Derived from: Multiple active signals including Strait of Hormuz crisis with Iran diplomatic brinkmanship (70% confidence) and Taiwan gray zone escalation (53% escalation probability). Industrial metals face supply chain uncertainty requiring strategic stockpiling. Base metal demand typically rises during infrastructure hedge positioning.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Zinc futures (ZN) will close above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Iranian attacks trigger industrial commodity hoarding and supply chain reconfiguration away from Middle East transit routes

market36%MISS

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Zinc futures will trade above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as infrastructure stockpiling accelerates ahead of potential supply disruptions from multiple geopolitical chokepoints

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