Zinc futures (ZN) will close above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Iranian attacks trigger industrial commodity hoarding and supply chain reconfiguration away from Middle East transit routes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.130.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification with active Iranian oil field attacks documented in knowledge bank. Industrial metals benefit from supply chain disruption and strategic stockpiling behaviors. 30-day timeframe selected based on superior calibration performance (Brier 0.212 vs 0.453 for 14-day).

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Zinc futures will trade above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as infrastructure stockpiling accelerates ahead of potential supply disruptions from multiple geopolitical chokepoints

market53%MISS

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Zinc futures (ZN) will close above $2,850 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Iranian attacks trigger industrial commodity hoarding and supply chain reconfiguration away from Middle East transit routes

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