MISSBrier 0.341

Data-resolved: USDMXN moved from 17.66 to 17.36 (-1.72%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10. Target: above 19.5. Target not reached. High was 18.17.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Market

LONG wrongUSDMXN

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as NAFTA trade vulnerabilities and risk-off dollar strength create emerging market currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.341.

Derived from: Multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) driving safe-haven USD demand while EM currencies face pressure. Compound probability: P(risk-off continues) * P(MXN weakness | risk-off) = 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64. Base rate for major FX moves adjusted upward given current regime tension.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$19.5

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 17.50 within 14 days as risk-off dollar flows compete with Mexico's relative regional stability and energy export benefits from Hormuz tensions

market48%MISS

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The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as NAFTA trade vulnerabilities and risk-off dollar strength create emerging market currency pressure

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