MISSBrier 0.229

Data-resolved: USDMXN moved from 17.66 to 17.74 (0.43%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-03-25. Target: below 17.5. Target not reached. Low was 17.52.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUSDMXN

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 17.50 within 14 days as risk-off dollar flows compete with Mexico's relative regional stability and energy export benefits from Hormuz tensions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 48% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.229.

Derived from: OPEC+ production cuts and Iran diplomatic brinkmanship scenarios create energy price uplift benefiting Mexico as oil exporter, while Mexico avoids direct exposure to Taiwan/Middle East tensions. Historical pattern shows MXN outperforms during contained geopolitical crises. Compound probability: P(energy uplift) * P(MXN benefits vs other EMs) = 0.7 * 0.5 = 0.35

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$17.5

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as NAFTA trade vulnerabilities and risk-off dollar strength create emerging market currency pressure

market58%MISS

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The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 17.50 within 14 days as risk-off dollar flows compete with Mexico's relative regional stability and energy export benefits from Hormuz tensions

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