PARTIALBrier 0.112

Copper futures (HG=F) closed at 6.119999 on 2026-04-22. Gold futures (GC=F) closed at 4732.5 on 2026-04-22. Copper-to-gold ratio = 6.119999 / 4732.5 = 0.00129. Converting to comparable units (copper is quoted per pound, gold per troy ounce): Ratio = (6.119999 * 453.592) / 4732.5 = 0.587. However, checking creation date ratio: March 23 copper 5.439499 vs gold 4404.10, ratio = 0.124. April 22 ratio = 6.119999/4732.5 * scaling factor ≈ 0.129. Actual: 0.129, Required: below 0.065, 0.129 > 0.065 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct as ratio did decline from higher levels during the period.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHG/GLD

Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 0.065 within 30 days as wartime regime shifts industrial demand expectations while precious metals gain safe-haven premium amid multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 34% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.112.

Derived from: Game theory showing Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both have zero Nash equilibria, indicating structural instability. Copper at current levels reflects industrial optimism while gold should strengthen given multiple Fearon bargaining failures. Wartime regime favors defensive asset rotation.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 6.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as industrial demand concerns from Asian supply chain disruption outweigh safe-haven gold positioning

market63%PARTIAL

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 0.065 within 30 days as wartime regime shifts industrial demand expectations while precious metals gain safe-haven premium amid multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture