PARTIALBrier 0.393

Calculated copper-to-gold ratio from March 26 to April 9, 2026. March 26: Copper $5.4465, Gold $400.64, Ratio = 1.36. April 9: Copper $5.748, Gold $437.91, Ratio = 1.31. All ratios during period were well below 6.5. Actual lowest ratio: ~1.31, Required: below 6.5, 1.31 < 6.5 therefore threshold MET on multiple days. Direction correct (ratio declined).

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHG/GLD

Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 6.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as industrial demand concerns from Asian supply chain disruption outweigh safe-haven gold positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 63% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.393.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait escalation probability at 53% with China gray zone operations creating semiconductor supply fears. Bayesian analysis shows fragile equilibrium (25% bargaining range) between China and US. Copper sensitive to Asian manufacturing disruption while gold benefits from wartime safe-haven flows.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 9173d ago
Made: Mar 26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 0.065 within 30 days as wartime regime shifts industrial demand expectations while precious metals gain safe-haven premium amid multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios

market34%PARTIAL

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Copper-to-gold ratio will decline below 6.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as industrial demand concerns from Asian supply chain disruption outweigh safe-haven gold positioning

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