Tesla (TSLA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $332.84, 6% from $354.08 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.140.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian assessment: Fearon bargaining range collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), bearish market assessment at 60% confidence. TSLA's China production/sales exposure makes it a direct transmission channel for trade-war deterioration.

Probability

37%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.