Tesla (TSLA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $352.78, 6% from $375.30 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Risk-off regime confirmed (Fear & Greed 38, IWM ATR 5.74 signaling chaotic small/high-beta sell-off) with 80% geopolitical escalation risk score; high-beta names like TSLA are most exposed to a continued volatility regime absent a stabilizing catalyst.

Probability

53%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 29today

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.