MISSBrier 0.273

Extensive search for European energy company announcements within the evidence window found no specific announcements of new long-term supply agreements or strategic partnerships by major European energy companies (Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, RWE, etc.). While there were general discussions about energy diversification and some references to partnerships, no concrete announcements were found matching the prediction criteria. Actual: 0 announcements found, Required: 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major European energy company will announce new long-term supply agreements or strategic partnerships outside traditional Russian/Middle Eastern sources within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 52% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.273.

Derived from: European Energy Security game theory scenario outcome (EU accelerate renewables vs Russia focus Asian markets, 70% confidence) and elevated geopolitical escalation risk (80%) forcing energy diversification

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least one major European energy company will announce new long-term supply agreements or strategic partnerships outside traditional Russian/Middle Eastern sources within 30 days

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