Search results showed various oil market developments including 'India's Venezuelan Crude Imports Resume Strategic Energy Diversification' (Apr 7) and 'Australia and Singapore lock in fuel agreement' (Mar 24), but these involve countries/governments rather than major oil companies making partnership announcements. No specific announcements by major oil companies (Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, TotalEnergies, etc.) of strategic partnerships with non-Middle Eastern producers were found. Actual: 0 oil company partnership announcements, Required: 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Apr 8, 2026
Geopolitical
At least one major oil company will announce strategic partnership or supply agreement with a non-Middle Eastern producer within 30 days as Hormuz closure scenario drives supply diversification
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 28% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.080.
Derived from: Hormuz closure scenario in game theory analysis and documented Japan/South Korea energy security concerns in actor intelligence updates
Probability
28%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 8174d ago
Made
Regimetransitional
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.