Boeing (BA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $201.64, 5% from $212.25 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 27% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.531.

Wartime risk-off regime combined with the Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium (critical fracture risk) pressures large-cap industrials with China commercial-aircraft order exposure; BA's China delivery pipeline is a direct transmission channel for US-China Fearon bargaining failure.

Probability

27%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.