HITBrier 0.531

Early-confirmed: BA hit target below 201.64 on 2026-09-17. Current price: 197.00 (started at 212.25).

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

SHORT correctBA

Boeing (BA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $201.64, 5% from $212.25 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 27% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.531.

Wartime risk-off regime combined with the Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium (critical fracture risk) pressures large-cap industrials with China commercial-aircraft order exposure; BA's China delivery pipeline is a direct transmission channel for US-China Fearon bargaining failure.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2024d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$201.64

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Boeing (BA) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $208.11, 5% from $198.20 at creation)

market68%MISS

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Boeing (BA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $201.64, 5% from $212.25 at creation)

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