OXY (Occidental Petroleum) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $63.04, 5% from $60.04 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-13. Brier score 0.066.

Strait of Hormuz escalation probability at 67% with confirmed prior mine/seizure incidents sustained Brent above $90 through late August; OXY's high oil-price beta captures this wartime crude premium directly.

Probability

26%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1316d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.