Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $63.92, 4% from $61.46 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 47% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Confirmed Hormuz disruption pattern (multiple wire-tier confirmed incidents) and Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% sustain crude war-premium; OXY as a high-beta E&P name benefits disproportionately from oil price support.

Probability

47%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 14in 15d

Made

Sep 14

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.