MISSBrier 0.618

Data-resolved: MRK, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-06. Target: above 155.48. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 141.93 (2026-10-06).

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

LONG wrongMRK

Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as capital rotates into defensive healthcare names during the risk-off regime (target above $155.48, 4% from $149.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 79% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.618.

Risk-off regime confirmation (F&G 38) and low correlation of MRK to Taiwan/China/Hormuz escalation vectors, favoring defensive positioning

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 68d ago
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$155.48

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $156.34, 4% from $150.33 at creation)

market50%MISS

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Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as capital rotates into defensive healthcare names during the risk-off regime (target above $155.48, 4% from $149.50 at creation)

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