MISSBrier 0.245

Data-resolved: MRK moved from 150.33 to 146.87 (-2.30%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 156.34. Target not reached. High was 149.60.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongMRK

Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $156.34, 4% from $150.33 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 50% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.245.

Defensive healthcare rotation thesis: risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38) with wartime escalation risk (80% score) typically drives capital into defensive healthcare names as an equity-market hedge distinct from broad-index exposure.

Probability: 50%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$156.34

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as capital rotates into defensive healthcare names during the risk-off regime (target above $155.48, 4% from $149.50 at creation)

market79%

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Merck (MRK) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $156.34, 4% from $150.33 at creation)

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