Derived from: the active thesis assigns 80% geopolitical escalation risk, while the Bayesian Hormuz model assigns 67% escalation probability. No shipping disruption is confirmed; this forecasts a direct repricing of consumer-discretionary equities, not a closure.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 29

Price Target$106.82

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Consumer discretionary ETF XLY will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days

market25%MISS

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