MISSBrier 0.064

Using nearest available trading data: XLY close 9/8 = 113.99, XLY close 9/18 (last trading day before 9/20 deadline) = 111.03 -> XLY return = (111.03-113.99)/113.99 = -2.60%. SPY close 9/8 = 765.96, SPY close 9/18 = 761.69 -> SPY return = (761.69-765.96)/765.96 = -0.56%. Relative underperformance = -2.60% - (-0.56%) = -2.04%. Required: XLY underperforms SPY by at least 3.0% cumulative. Actual underperformance 2.04% < 3.0%, threshold NOT met, though direction (XLY underperforming SPY) was correct.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXLY

Consumer discretionary ETF XLY will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.064.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38) combined with sustained oil war-premium (confirmed Brent above $90, USO near $142) should compress discretionary consumer spending relative to the broader index during the wartime energy-cost shock.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLY will close at least 2% below its September 29 closing price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $106.82, 2% from $109.00 at creation)

market54%

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Consumer discretionary ETF XLY will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days

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