Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% raising fuel-cost exposure for transports, combined with equity risk-off regime and negative equity momentum (SPY/QQQ MACD deeply negative).

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 25d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$75.77

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Transportation ETF IYT will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $78.44, 4% from $81.71 at creation)

market37%MISS

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