MISSBrier 0.140

Data-resolved: IYT moved from 81.71 to 79.76 (-2.39%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: below 78.44. Target not reached. Low was 79.28.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIYT

Transportation ETF IYT will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $78.44, 4% from $81.71 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.140.

Confirmed Red Sea/Hormuz shipping disruptions (Houthi attacks, Iranian tanker seizures, mine clearance operations) already drove FedEx (FDX) to a confirmed 4% decline; the freight-cost shock should extend to the broader transportation index, an instrument not yet covered by any pending prediction.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$78.44

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IYT (transportation ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $75.77, 5% from $79.76 at creation)

market81%

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Transportation ETF IYT will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $78.44, 4% from $81.71 at creation)

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