MISSBrier 0.161

Data-resolved: LLY moved from 1149.36 to 1152.93 (0.31%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 1195.33. Target not reached. High was 1161.00.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctLLY

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off capital rotates into defensive healthcare names amid the wartime regime (target above $1195.33, 4% from $1149.36 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.161.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed risk-off market regime) historically favors defensive healthcare rotation; percentage_threshold/market reference class hit rate 20% anchors confidence low.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$1,195.33

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $1211.49, 4% from $1164.89 at creation)

market71%

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Eli Lilly (LLY) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off capital rotates into defensive healthcare names amid the wartime regime (target above $1195.33, 4% from $1149.36 at creation)

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