MISSBrier 0.131

Web search found 2 banking-related articles in evidence window: 1) Prosperity Bancshares (US regional bank, not European) March 15, 2) Intesa Sanpaolo hits record highs March 18 (positive news, not emergency measures). No European banks announced emergency credit facilities or capital preservation measures. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major European bank will announce emergency credit facility access or capital preservation measures within 7 days as energy import financing stress and sovereign debt volatility create liquidity pressures

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-28. Brier score 0.131.

Derived from: Live Intelligence showing European banking stress concerns and ECB Intelligence Update indicating coordination with other central banks on potential energy shocks. Wartime regime creates cascading financial sector stress.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 28185d ago
Made: Mar 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least one major European bank will announce emergency credit facility access or capital preservation measures within 7 days as energy import financing stress and sovereign debt volatility create liquidity pressures

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