MISSBrier 0.350

CRITICAL INSTRUMENT MISMATCH: Prediction states 'Palladium (PALL) will close above $1,400 per ounce' but PALL is an ETF with share prices, not per-ounce commodity prices. PALL highest close during evidence window was $146.36 on April 8, 2026. PALL ETF share price cannot be compared to per-ounce commodity pricing ($1,400). This represents a fundamental category error - ETF share prices vs. actual commodity spot/futures prices. Actual: 146.36, Required: 1400, 146.36 < 1400 therefore threshold NOT met, but comparison is invalid due to instrument mismatch.

Resolved Apr 25, 2026

Market

LONG wrongPALL

Palladium (PALL) will close above $1,400 per ounce on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Russian supply disruption concerns combine with automotive demand recovery

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-25. Brier score 0.350.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame game theory shows 'Russia chooses Negotiate from strength; US chooses Push negotiated settlement' with 78% confidence, but negotiations increase supply uncertainty. Palladium heavily dependent on Russian production (40% global supply). Wartime regime with energy sector disruption supports industrial metals premium.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 25157d ago
Made: Mar 26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Palladium futures will trade above $1,100 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as automotive supply chain concerns and precious metals safe haven demand converge amid geopolitical escalation

market10%MISS

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Palladium (PALL) will close above $1,400 per ounce on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Russian supply disruption concerns combine with automotive demand recovery

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