MISSBrier 0.010

Early-denied: PALL at 122.12 has moved too far from target above 1100 (started at 146.14, distance to target: 800.8%). Target is no longer reachable within deadline.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Market

LONG wrongPALL

Palladium futures will trade above $1,100 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as automotive supply chain concerns and precious metals safe haven demand converge amid geopolitical escalation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: wartime regime creating industrial metals supply chain disruption concerns. Russia is major palladium producer and current sanctions environment affects supply expectations. Safe haven flows into precious metals complex as evidenced by gold strength. Iran Nuclear Breakout showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) suggesting continued escalation risk.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Price Target$1,100

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Palladium (PALL) will close above $1,400 per ounce on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Russian supply disruption concerns combine with automotive demand recovery

market59%MISS

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Palladium futures will trade above $1,100 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as automotive supply chain concerns and precious metals safe haven demand converge amid geopolitical escalation

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