MISSBrier 0.654

Data-resolved: NEM, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-21 through 2026-10-05. Target: above 129.58. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 115.82 (2026-10-05).

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Market

LONG wrongNEM

Newmont (NEM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $129.58, 5% from $123.41 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 81% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-06. Brier score 0.654.

Gold's safe-haven bid amid an 80% geopolitical escalation score and Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) should flow through to gold miner equities with operating leverage beyond GLD itself, which is already covered by existing predictions.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 59d ago
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$129.58

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

NEM (Newmont) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $137.06, 7% from $128.09 at creation)

market37%MISS

NEM will close at least 3% above its October 6, 2026 closing price on at least one trading day by November 5, 2026 (target above $119.29, 3% from $115.82 at creation)

market59%

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Newmont (NEM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $129.58, 5% from $123.41 at creation)

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