MISSBrier 0.139

Data-resolved: NEM moved from 128.09 to 123.41 (-3.65%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 137.06. Target not reached. High was 130.48.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongNEM

NEM (Newmont) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $137.06, 7% from $128.09 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.139.

GLD confirmed above $415 amid Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and sustained wartime safe-haven demand; gold miners typically show leveraged beta to spot gold moves.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2026d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$137.06

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Newmont (NEM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $129.58, 5% from $123.41 at creation)

market81%MISS

NEM will close at least 3% above its October 6, 2026 closing price on at least one trading day by November 5, 2026 (target above $119.29, 3% from $115.82 at creation)

market59%

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NEM (Newmont) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $137.06, 7% from $128.09 at creation)

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