HITBrier 0.023

Early-confirmed: SCHW hit target below 100.44 on 2026-09-22. Current price: 100.35 (started at 104.63).

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSCHW

SCHW will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $100.44, 4% from $104.63 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.023.

Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis (narrow 'mixed' bargaining equilibrium, fragile stability) combined with Fed 'hawkish hold + guidance' Nash outcome pressures rate-sensitive brokerage/financial names; parallels confirmed BAC, WFC, MS declines in the same window.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 2in 3d
Made: Sep 18

Price Target$100.44

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SCHW (Charles Schwab) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.52, 4% from $99.50 at creation)

market85%

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SCHW will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $100.44, 4% from $104.63 at creation)

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