MISSBrier 0.722

Data-resolved: SCHW, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-24 through 2026-10-08. Target: below 95.52. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 96.27 (2026-10-08).

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSCHW

SCHW (Charles Schwab) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.52, 4% from $99.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-09. Brier score 0.722.

Continuation of the risk-off financial-sector pressure pattern (SCHW confirmed a 4% downside breach in the prior 14-day window) amid deteriorating credit signals (HYG) and a fragile Fed equilibrium favoring hawkish guidance.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 88d ago
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$95.52

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SCHW will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $100.44, 4% from $104.63 at creation)

market85%HIT

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SCHW (Charles Schwab) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.52, 4% from $99.50 at creation)

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