Retroactively expired: this was an operational action item, not a falsifiable prediction. Imperative claims (Deploy X, Establish Y, Upgrade Z) cannot be scored and were damaging calibration metrics.
Resolved Mar 19, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 84% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-03-19.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
Deploy real-time VIX and technical monitoring - current information gap is unacceptable during 80% escalation risk environment
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring system - 82-84% confidence predictions expire March 15
Monitor WTI 3x leveraged position (-£7.98) for potential oil shock during anniversary window
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Deploy VIX monitoring infrastructure immediately - three 82-85% confidence predictions expire March 15 with zero technical coverage