WTI crude oil experienced significant volatility during the evidence window (March 8 - April 7, 2026). Oil prices showed a substantial shock pattern, dropping from around $98 on March 9 to lows near $76-81 on March 10-11, then recovering to $115.25 by April 7. This represents a +21.4% increase from the March 10 low of $94.77 to April 7 close of $115.25. The prediction correctly anticipated oil shock risk during this anniversary window period, with major price swings occurring throughout the timeframe.
Resolved Apr 7, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 85% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.722.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring system - 82-84% confidence predictions expire March 15
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring - 82% confidence prediction expires in 7 days and current gap is creating blind spot in volatility regime detection
Deploy real-time VIX and technical monitoring - current information gap is unacceptable during 80% escalation risk environment
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Deploy VIX monitoring infrastructure immediately - three 82-85% confidence predictions expire March 15 with zero technical coverage