Semiconductor ETF SOXX will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 26% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-22.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (China: gray zone escalation, US: economic deterrence, fragile 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) flags technology/semiconductor as a key sector; the same dynamic drove a confirmed 9.64pp SOXX underperformance vs SPY in the prior comparable window.

Probability

26%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1415d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.