HITBrier 0.760

SOXX close 2026-07-15=555.27, close 2026-07-28(latest before deadline)=491.46, return=-11.49%. SPY close 2026-07-15=754.81, close 2026-07-28=740.86, return=-1.85%. Underperformance = SOXX return - SPY return = -11.49% - (-1.85%) = -9.64 percentage points, i.e. SOXX underperformed SPY by 9.64%. Required threshold was 3% underperformance; 9.64% > 3%, therefore threshold MET. Direction matches predicted 'down' (SOXX underperforming).

Resolved Jul 29, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSOXX

Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-15 at 13% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-07-29. Brier score 0.760.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium shows fragile stability (25-30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) with China in gray-zone escalation and US in economic deterrence; semiconductors are explicitly tagged as an at-risk sector across multiple convergent signals (Erev Pesach event, Mars-Saturn conjunction), supporting relative underperformance versus broad equities.

Probability: 13%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jul 2962d ago
Made: Jul 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Semiconductor ETF SOXX will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 7 days.

market26%EXPIRED

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Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days

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