Alcoa (AA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $43.73, 6% from $46.52 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 77% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.055.

Derived from: US-China Trade War Escalation Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-favoring), which pressures metals/materials names exposed to tariff retaliation and trade-flow disruption.

Probability

77%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 16

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.