Alcoa (AA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $46.97, 6% from $49.97 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.446.

Wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, RSI capitulation on SPY/QQQ) plus industrial demand-destruction risk from Hormuz-linked energy cost spikes historically pressures base-metals producers ahead of broader equity confirmation.

Probability

33%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.