MISSBrier 0.214

Web search found only 1 article within the evidence window (2026-03-23 to 2026-04-22) mentioning US-Russia competition in Africa from April 21, 2026, but no specific reports of major African mining companies announcing production suspensions or security force deployments due to Wagner Group/Africa Corps activities. No evidence of the required 3+ company announcements. Actual: 0 companies, Required: 3 companies, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 major African mining companies will announce production suspensions or security force deployments within 30 days as Wagner Group/Africa Corps expands recruitment operations across multiple nations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 46% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-22. Brier score 0.214.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Wagner/Africa Corps 'expanding operational footprint through sanctions relief, continuous recruitment' with 'minimal enforcement obstacles' and 'growing influence across West Africa.' Pattern matches historical Wagner resource extraction model.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 3 major African mining companies will announce production suspensions or security force deployments within 30 days as Wagner Group/Africa Corps expands recruitment operations across multiple nations

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