EWT will close at least 3% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 10, 2026 (target below $110.88, 3% from $114.31 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-11 at 64% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-10.

The Taiwan Strait Bayesian analysis assigns 53% escalation probability, a narrow 25% bargaining range, and a fragile gray-zone-escalation equilibrium. EWT tests the direct Taiwan-equity exposure to that risk.

Probability

64%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Nov 10in 27d

Made

Oct 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.