What changed in the world

Latest developments

1. Wednesday 30 September28 developments

   • 12:59News

     Fed's preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected

     CNBCFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 12:31Forecast

     Russia will launch a drone or missile strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that Ukrainian authorities publicly report by October 14, 2026.

     Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 12:31Forecast

     Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line at least once between October 1 and October 7, 2026, as reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

     China, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 12:31Forecast

     The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.

     Federal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 12:27News

     Israeli officials say diverted flydubai incident may be attempted 'terror attack' - Reuters

     ReutersIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 12:05News

     'Economic war': Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 11:43News

     Flydubai flight to Israel diverted after attack on pilot

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 11:32News

     Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kyiv region kill four, target power grid

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 10:00News

     Inside Man: How Chinese spies used lies, love and betrayal to target the Federal Reserve

     CNBCFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 09:54News

     'I wanted to live': A Ukrainian orphan's journey through Russian occupation

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 09:00News

     How Ukraine's Naval Drones Are Remaking War at Sea

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 08:16News

     Russia targets data centers in Kyiv as NATO condemns Moscow's 'irresponsible nuclear rhetoric'

     CNBCRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 08:09News

     Oil Prices Slip Further as Gulf Exports Recover - WSJ

     WSJOil prices and OPEC+

   • 07:46News

     Russia targets communications and energy facilities in overnight drone attacks on Ukraine - Europe live

     The GuardianRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 07:12News

     Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Qatar pushes for peace talks

     CNBCIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 04:51News

     Israel's Lapid accuses Netanyahu of 'fear-mongering' over attack warning

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 04:40News

     Inflation leaps to 4% stoking fears of fifth interest rate hike before Christmas

     The GuardianOil prices and OPEC+

   • 04:00News

     Missile alerts cost Ukraine $45m for every hour they halt businesses

     The GuardianRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 02:00News

     Taiwan plans US$850 million ammunition spend to prepare for potential PLA blockade

     SCMPChina, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 01:39News

     Oil gains after Trump denies he is willing to ease Iran sanctions - Reuters

     ReutersIran nuclear talks and sanctionsOil prices and OPEC+

   • 00:16News

     US Senate blocks resolution demanding accountability over Israeli violence in West Bank

     The GuardianIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 00:15Resolved

     Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 00:15Resolved

     China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

     China, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 00:15Resolved

     Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

     Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 00:15Resolved

     Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iran-linked target outside Lebanon/Gaza (e.g., Syria, Yemen, or Iranian territory/proxy infrastructure) within 14 days.

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 00:15Resolved

     Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a Saudi Arabian or UAE oil production or export facility within 14 days

     Oil prices and OPEC+

   • 00:15Resolved

     Israel will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-linked targets within the 7-day window surrounding the September 19 Yom Kippur/Autumnal Equinox anniversary convergence

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 00:00Resolved

     ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as wartime oil-risk pricing intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz (target above $135.18, 6% from $127.53 at creation)

     Oil prices and OPEC+Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

2. Tuesday 29 September66 developments

   • 21:24News

     'Netanyahu targets Qatar to deflect from Gaza war crimes'

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 21:00Resolved

     Bank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

     Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 20:48News

     US sanctions 10 entities for allegedly supporting Iran's military

     Al JazeeraIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 19:10News

     Fed's Williams Hints Next Rate Increase Can Wait - WSJ

     WSJFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 19:07News

     The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect

     CNBCFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 19:07News

     The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect - CNBC

     CNBCFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 18:51News

     Jerusalem Daily: Israeli worshippers attack Palestinian man

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 18:45News

     Ukrainian Science Academy, Struck by Drone, Played Key Role in Research

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 18:20News

     U.S. Stocks Pare Losses After Comments From Fed's Williams - WSJ

     WSJFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 18:00News

     Fed's Williams Sees One More Interest Rate Hike in Late 2026 - Bloomberg

     BloombergFederal Reserve and US interest rates

   • 17:26News

     US to loan up to 40 million barrels of oil from SPR, last batch from global deal - Reuters

     ReutersOil prices and OPEC+

   • 16:57News

     Mourners in Gaza bury remains of loved ones killed in 2023 Israeli strike

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 16:52News

     Saudi Arabia urged to reconcile with UAE to drive back Houthi separatists in Yemen

     The GuardianStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 16:46News

     Middle Eastern oil exports rise to highest level since Iran war began - Financial Times

     Financial TimesOil prices and OPEC+

   • 16:29News

     Tankers Are Loading Oil Again From a Vital Saudi Pipeline - The New York Times

     The New York TimesOil prices and OPEC+

   • 16:29News

     Tankers Are Loading Oil Again From a Vital Saudi Pipeline

     New York TimesOil prices and OPEC+

   • 16:12News

     Saudi Arabia resumes Yanbu oil loading after pipeline restart - Reuters

     ReutersOil prices and OPEC+

   • 15:33News

     US-Iran talks in New York: What's the latest? - Al Jazeera

     Al JazeeraIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 15:21News

     U.S. Consumer Confidence Fell in September Amid Elevated Oil Prices, Inflation Worries, Conference Board Says - WSJ

     WSJOil prices and OPEC+

   • 15:09News

     US-Iran talks in New York: What's the latest?

     Al JazeeraIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 14:40News

     Israel's Gaza air strike kills Hamas commander behind October 7, 2023 attack

     SCMPIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 14:20News

     Estonia blames Russia for arson attack on drone maker supplying Ukraine

     The GuardianRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 14:00News

     US Navy launches drone command that could reshape Taiwan war planning

     SCMPChina, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 13:46News

     Israeli Settler Attack in West Bank Blocks Palestinian Family From Returning Home - The New York Times

     The New York TimesIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 13:31News

     Estonia accuses Russia of arson attack on defence firm supplying Ukraine - Al Jazeera

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 13:26News

     Estonia accuses Russia of arson attack on defence firm supplying Ukraine

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 13:22News

     Are Houthis using new modified cruise missiles in Yemen's war?

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 13:20News

     Iran downplays possible role in Houthis' recent Yemen victories

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 13:15News

     Estonia blames Russia for arson at defence company supplying Ukraine - BBC

     BBCRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 12:43News

     Israeli Settler Attack in West Bank Blocks Palestinian Family From Returning Home

     New York TimesIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 12:39News

     Israeli settlers attack West Bank village and block Palestinian family's return home - BBC

     BBCIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 12:32Forecast

     The US Navy will publicly report escorting a commercial vessel through the Red Sea within 30 days.

     Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 12:17Resolved

     Israel will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon within 14 days

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 12:07News

     Estonia blames Russia for arson attack on company supplying vehicles to Ukraine

     SCMPRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 12:00News

     Hormuz and Yemen: Iran offers de-escalation at a price others will pay

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 11:31News

     Estonia Says Arson at Defense Company Was 'Deliberate' Attack by Russia

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 11:15News

     Israeli settlers attack Jalud village in occupied West Bank pogrom - Al Jazeera

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 11:03News

     Stock Market Today: Oil in Focus, Bond Selloff Pauses, Dow Futures Slip - Live Updates - WSJ

     WSJOil prices and OPEC+

   • 10:45News

     Philippine coastguard battles funding cuts amid bigger South China Sea role

     SCMPChina, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 10:13News

     Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief for nuclear concessions - US politics live

     The GuardianIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 09:17News

     Argentina's Milei threatens legal action over Falklands oil project

     Al JazeeraOil prices and OPEC+

   • 09:01News

     Bomb by Bomb, the Slow Death of My Hometown in Ukraine

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 09:01News

     The Rescuers Keeping Two Ukrainian 'Fortress Cities' Alive

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 08:44News

     Putin orders army expansion as Zelenskyy warns Russia preparing to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops - CNBC

     CNBCRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 08:44News

     Putin orders army expansion as Zelenskyy warns Russia preparing to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops

     CNBCRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 08:15News

     US-Iran talks continue, but 'deal unlikely' before midterm elections

     Al JazeeraIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 08:01News

     Israeli settlers attack Jalud village in occupied West Bank, torch homes

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 07:54News

     Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Remain Uncertain - WSJ

     WSJIran nuclear talks and sanctionsOil prices and OPEC+

   • 07:49News

     Russia's sabotage and drone incidents are 'failing to undermine' Nato support for Ukraine, Rutte says - Europe live

     The GuardianRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 07:48News

     Satellite images show Gaza in ruins three years into Israel's genocidal war - Al Jazeera

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 07:41News

     Satellite images show Gaza in ruins three years into Israel's genocidal war

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 07:34News

     Israeli forces kill Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza attack

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 07:26News

     Oil Rises Despite Saudi Pipeline Repair as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall - WSJ

     WSJOil prices and OPEC+Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 06:39News

     Israel kills senior Hamas commander in Gaza strike - Reuters

     ReutersIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 04:46News

     Rubio, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister hold talks on Yemen, Hormuz Strait

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 04:02News

     U.S., Iran hold separate mediator talks as Mideast oil exports hit war-time high

     CNBCIran nuclear talks and sanctionsOil prices and OPEC+

   • 03:43News

     Russia pounds Ukraine's Kyiv after deadly strike on Academy of Sciences - Al Jazeera

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 03:38News

     Russia pounds Ukraine's Kyiv after deadly strike on Academy of Sciences

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 02:36News

     Iran's Araghchi meets Qatari mediators as US calls for nuclear talks

     Al JazeeraIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 01:53News

     Oil prices flat as Middle East supply concerns persist

     CNBCOil prices and OPEC+

   • 00:39News

     Netanyahu Visits Emirati Leader After Reports on Warning About Hamas Attack

     New York TimesIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 00:33News

     Oil prices rise for second session on continued Middle East supply concerns - reuters.com

     ReutersOil prices and OPEC+

   • 00:15Resolved

     Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

     Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 00:15Resolved

     Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflictOil prices and OPEC+

   • 00:15Resolved

     Russia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

     Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 00:15Resolved

     Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

     Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

3. Monday 28 September26 developments

   • 23:04News

     Ukraine's Zelenskiy says North Korea prepares to deploy another 10,000 troops to Russia - Reuters

     ReutersRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 22:48News

     'Missed opportunity': US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts

     SCMPUS tariffs and the trade war

   • 21:47News

     Samuel Alito steps aside in a major climate case amid scrutiny over oil stock holdings

     The GuardianOil prices and OPEC+

   • 21:34News

     Gold falls amid rising oil prices and higher US dollar

     Al JazeeraOil prices and OPEC+

   • 20:31News

     EXCLUSIVE: US to grant sanctions waiver for flights between Iran and Iraq's Najaf, source says - Reuters

     ReutersIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 20:27News

     Kyiv Science Academy hit, 10 dead as Russian jet-drones strike across Ukraine - Reuters

     ReutersRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 20:20News

     Treasury Yields Climb to Fresh Highs While Oil Rises - WSJ

     WSJOil prices and OPEC+

   • 20:13News

     Stock futures move higher as oil and rates ease, tech shares gain: Live updates - CNBC

     CNBCOil prices and OPEC+

   • 19:08News

     Putin signs decree adding 15,500 troops to Russian army

     SCMPRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 18:28News

     US to grant sanctions waiver for flights between Iran and Iraq's Najaf, source says

     SCMPIran nuclear talks and sanctions

   • 18:03News

     Pope Leo urges concessions for peace as Ukraine war drags on - Reuters

     ReutersRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 17:43News

     Iran touts Hormuz attacks as oil flows increase despite tensions

     Al JazeeraOil prices and OPEC+Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 17:37News

     Photos: Russian drone strikes pound civilian targets across Kyiv

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 17:06News

     Russia strike sets National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine ablaze

     Al JazeeraRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 16:20News

     Over 800 Killed in Renewed Houthi-Saudi War in Yemen, W.H.O. Says

     New York TimesStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 16:20News

     Over 800 Killed in Renewed Houthi-Saudi War in Yemen, W.H.O. Says - The New York Times

     The New York TimesStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

   • 16:17News

     Russian Drone Strikes Ukraine's Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center

     New York TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 16:00News

     Palestine has become electoral issue in UK for first time, says solidarity campaign chief

     The GuardianIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 15:16News

     'This is terrorism': daytime Russian strike hits science academy in Kyiv

     The GuardianRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 15:03News

     Russian drones hit Kyiv science academy and hospital - Financial Times

     Financial TimesRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 14:57News

     South Korea summons Ukraine envoy over North Korean prisoner-of-war row - BBC

     BBCRussia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

   • 14:02News

     Foie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods

     The GuardianUS tariffs and the trade war

   • 13:53News

     Iraq looks for oil export alternatives to the troubled Strait of Hormuz

     Al JazeeraStrait of Hormuz and Red Sea shippingOil prices and OPEC+

   • 11:43News

     Israeli fans direct monkey chants and military slogans at Ireland's players

     Al JazeeraIsrael, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

   • 11:03News

     China deploys advanced WZ-7 drone for first time near Scarborough Shoal

     SCMPChina, Taiwan and the South China Sea

   • 11:00News

     As the US midterms approach, Trump's boasts on the economy fall flat with voters

     The GuardianUS tariffs and the trade war