The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-30 at 56% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-29.

Derived from: Polymarket market 2589812, priced at 55% YES, and the Fed Rate Cycle Pivot game-theory outcome of a hawkish hold.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 29in 29d
Made: Sep 30

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 682705 on October 28, 2026.

geopolitical35%

Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line at least once between October 1 and October 7, 2026, as reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

geopolitical6%

Russia will launch a drone or missile strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that Ukrainian authorities publicly report by October 14, 2026.

geopolitical46%

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The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.

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