Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line at least once between October 1 and October 7, 2026, as reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-30 at 6% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Derived from: the actor-belief analysis raising China's territorial-assertion probability around National Day to 21%, and the Bayesian Taiwan Strait assessment assigning 53% escalation probability. This is distinct from the pending blockade-exercise claim.

Probability: 6%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 7d
Made: Sep 30

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line at least once between October 1 and October 7, 2026, as reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

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